2026 forecast
Maryland Comptroller forecast
Brooke Lierman vs Sonya Dunn, with Brooke Lierman running again. The model has Lierman ahead by 42.8 points, with a 100 percent chance of winning.
County forecast
24 counties · 10 lean DemocraticD +40R +40Hover a county for its projected vote
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, governor | D +36.7 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | D +40.0 |
| Blend of every leg | D +40.9 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | D +43.3 |
| With polls, none in the race | D +42.8 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +50.0 and D +35.5.
Polls of the race
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Lierman | Dunn | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this race. The forecast rests on the top of ticket, past results and the primaries. | |||||