2026 forecast
Nevada Governor forecast
Aaron Ford vs Joe Lombardo. The model has Lombardo ahead by 3.5 points, winning 72 percent of 10,000 simulated elections.
County simulation
17 countiesD +40R +40Hover a county for the simulated vote
Every simulated outcome
10,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between D +4.1 and R +11.4. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| OnPoint average | LOWESS Election Day projection | R +1.4 | |
| Noble Predictive Insights | 708 LV | 17d | R +2.6 |
| Emerson College | 680 LV | 35d | D +3.2 |
| Tarrance Group (R) | 519 LV | 76d | R +5.1 |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | 558 LV | 89d | R +1.2 |
| Wedgewood Polls (D) | 700 LV | 93d | R +3.8 |
| Grassroots Targeting (R) | 500 LV | 97d | R +9.7 |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R) | 600 LV | 106d | R +5.8 |
| Global Strategy Group (D) | 700 LV | 155d | R +4.8 |
| Noble Predictive Insights | 845 RV | 214d | R +1.4 |
| Hart Research (D) | 800 LV | 238d | R +3.9 |
| Emerson College | 800 RV | 329d | D +1.4 |
| Noble Predictive Insights | 766 RV | 365d | R +3.4 |
| Vote TXT | 412 RV | 1243d | R +20.8 |
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Ford | Lombardo |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 49% | 42.2 | 52.5 |
| Women | 52% | 48.8 | 46.0 |
| Age18 to 29 | 14% | 45.7 | 48.9 |
| 30 to 44 | 24% | 44.2 | 50.6 |
| 45 to 64 | 34% | 44.6 | 50.2 |
| 65+ | 29% | 48.0 | 46.7 |
| RaceWhite | 59% | 33.9 | 60.8 |
| Black | 10% | 76.1 | 19.2 |
| Latino | 18% | 53.6 | 41.3 |
| Asian and other | 14% | 64.1 | 30.1 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 27% | 27.9 | 66.9 |
| White women | 32% | 39.2 | 55.5 |
| Black men | 5% | 72.0 | 23.3 |
| Black women | 5% | 80.0 | 15.3 |
| Latino men | 9% | 51.3 | 43.6 |
| Latino women | 9% | 56.1 | 38.9 |
| All other races | 14% | 64.1 | 30.1 |