2026 ballot measure forecast

Idaho HJR 4

Only Legislature may legalize marijuana and drugs

Gives the Legislature sole power to legalize marijuana, narcotics and other psychoactive substances, blocking legalization by citizen initiative. The forecast has Yes at 61.2 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 86% chance to pass.

Likely to passConstitutional amendment referred by the legislatureMarijuanaUpdated October 17, 2026

Chance to pass

86%

2,000 simulations

Forecast Yes

61.2%

80% range 48 to 73

Needs

50%

a simple majority

Polling average

None

No public polls found

County forecast

42 of 44 counties vote Yes

No +30Yes +30Hover a county for its forecast

Where the Yes vote lands

needs 50

2035506580

History and structure: 61.2% Yes
Polls: None
Forecast: 61.2% Yes
Yes leans: Republican
Rule to pass: Simple majority of votes cast on the measure.

The campaign

Referred by Republican legislature; Democrats oppose saying it removes voter power.

Also on the Idaho ballot

Advisory Question

Advisory vote on official state gun

49%

HJR 6

English as official state language

95%

Reproductive Freedom and Privacy Act

Restore abortion access before viability

23%

Polls of the measure

no polls

Pollster	Sample	Ended	Yes	No	Undecided	Yes, adjusted
No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot.

How this is built

HJR 4 is forecast as a marijuana measure whose Yes vote leans Republican. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Idaho's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: legislature.idaho.gov , kmvt.com. All measures.