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15 DAYS OUT
NE GovPillen R +0.8GA GovBottoms D +0.8KS GovHolscher D +0.8KS SenMarshall R +1.3IA SenTurek D +1.4AK SenPeltola D +1.4SC SenAndrews D +1.5TX SenTalarico D +2.0TX GovAbbott R +2.2ME SenJackson D +2.5WI GovCrowley D +2.8NE SenOsborn I +3.4OH SenBrown D +3.8NV GovFord D +4.0OH GovActon D +4.7FL GovDonalds R +4.9
2026 ballot measure forecast

California Proposition 37

Loans for middle income buyers of new homes

Authorizes 25 billion in bonds to fund fixed rate second mortgages on new homes for buyers up to 200 percent of area median income, repaid by borrowers. The forecast has Yes at 59.7 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 95% chance to pass.

Very likely to passCitizen initiated statuteHousingUpdated October 17, 2026
Chance to pass
95%
2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
59.7%
80% range 52 to 67
Needs
50%
a simple majority
Polling average
62.3%
Yes, with undecided split two to one for No

County forecast

57 of 58 counties vote Yes
No +30Yes +30Hover a county for its forecast
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580
History and structure
54.2% Yes
Polls
62.3% Yes
Forecast
59.7% Yes
Yes leans
Neither party
Rule to pass
Simple majority of votes cast on the measure.
The campaign

Citizen initiative; includes opt-in builder track trading labor enforcement for friendlier defect rules.

Also on the California ballot

Proposition 1
Affordable housing and veterans housing bond
93%
Proposition 2
Raise rainy day fund cap to 20 percent
>99%
Proposition 3
Make top income tax rates permanent
92%
Proposition 4
Allow public financing of campaigns
60%
Proposition 5
Recall: remove successor election
39%
Proposition 38
Immunology research bonds
90%
Proposition 39
Voter ID and citizenship verification
17%
Proposition 40
One time 5 percent billionaire wealth tax
65%
Proposition 41
Audits of new special taxes, Gann limit rule
31%
Proposition 42
Ban new state wealth and personal property taxes
66%
Proposition 43
Two thirds vote for local special taxes
4%
Proposition 44
Community clinics must spend 90 percent on services
7%
Proposition 45
Fast track CEQA review for essential projects
63%

Polls of the measure

1 poll
PollsterSampleEndedYesNoUndecidedYes, adjusted
Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC Statewide Survey)1,103 LV2026-09-10613562.3%
How this is built
Proposition 37 is forecast as a housing measure whose Yes vote leans to neither party. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with California's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov, growsf.org, ppic.org. All measures.