2026 ballot measure forecast
Vermont Proposal 3
Constitutional right to collective bargaining
Adds a constitutional right for employees to organize and bargain collectively, barring laws that interfere with it, effectively banning right-to-work laws. The forecast has Yes at 71.3 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a >99% chance to pass.
Chance to pass
>99%2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
71.3%80% range 65 to 77
Needs
50%a simple majority
Polling average
69.3%Yes, with undecided split two to one for No
County forecast
14 of 14 counties vote YesNo +30Yes +30Hover a county for its forecast
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580- History and structure
- 75.4% Yes
- Polls
- 69.3% Yes
- Forecast
- 71.3% Yes
- Yes leans
- Democratic
- Rule to pass
- Simple majority.
The campaign
Yes on 3 (Rep. Conor Casey) and Vermont AFL-CIO support; Right for Vermont Foundation opposes; no money totals reported.
Also on the Vermont ballot
Proposal 4
Constitutional equal protection guarantee
>99%
Polls of the measure
2 polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Yes | No | Undecided | Yes, adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNH Survey Center (Green Mountain State Poll) | 835 LV | 2026-09-21 | 65 | 22 | 13 | 69.3% |
| Jim Eltringham · for the No side | 600 | 27 | 55 | 37.0% |
How this is built
Proposal 3 is forecast as a labor measure whose Yes vote leans Democratic. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Vermont's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: wcax.com, vtdigger.org, sevendaysvt.com. All measures.