2026 ballot measure forecast

New Mexico Constitutional Amendment 2

Allow school elections with partisan elections

Removes the requirement that school elections be held separately from partisan elections, allowing them on November even year ballots. The forecast has Yes at 59.9 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 84% chance to pass.

Likely to passConstitutional amendment referred by the legislatureElectionsUpdated October 17, 2026

Chance to pass

84%

2,000 simulations

Forecast Yes

59.9%

80% range 47 to 72

Needs

50%

a simple majority

Polling average

None

No public polls found

County forecast

33 of 33 counties vote Yes

No +30Yes +30Hover a county for its forecast

Where the Yes vote lands

needs 50

2035506580

History and structure: 59.9% Yes
Polls: None
Forecast: 59.9% Yes
Yes leans: Neither party
Rule to pass: Simple majority assumed. It amends Art. VII Sec. 1 (elective franchise), which Art. XIX Sec. 1 has historically shielded with a 3/4 statewide and 2/3 per county requirement; whether that applies was not confirmed.

The campaign

Co-sponsored by Sen. Linda Trujillo (D); critics warn of voter fatigue.

Also on the New Mexico ballot

Constitutional Amendment 1

End pocket veto, require veto explanations

97%

Constitutional Amendment 3

Nominating committee for university regents

94%

Constitutional Amendment 4

Tie legislator pay to median income

97%

Bond Question 1

Senior citizen facilities bond

95%

Bond Question 2

Library acquisitions bond

94%

Bond Question 3

Higher education and tribal schools bond

93%

Polls of the measure

no polls

Pollster	Sample	Ended	Yes	No	Undecided	Yes, adjusted
No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot.

How this is built

Constitutional Amendment 2 is forecast as a elections measure whose Yes vote leans to neither party. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with New Mexico's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: sos.nm.gov , sourcenm.com. All measures.