2026 ballot measure forecast

Arkansas Issue 4

$500 million water infrastructure bonds

Authorizes the Arkansas Natural Resources Commission to issue up to $500 million in general obligation bonds for water, waste disposal, pollution control, flood control, irrigation and wetlands projects. The forecast has Yes at 69.4 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a >99% chance to pass.

Very likely to passBond issueBonds and budgetsUpdated October 17, 2026

Chance to pass

>99%

2,000 simulations

Forecast Yes

69.4%

80% range 61 to 76

Needs

50%

a simple majority

Polling average

74.0%

Yes, with undecided split two to one for No

County forecast

75 of 75 counties vote Yes

No +30Yes +30Hover a county for its forecast

Where the Yes vote lands

needs 50

2035506580

History and structure: 62.5% Yes
Polls: 74.0% Yes
Forecast: 69.4% Yes
Yes leans: Neither party

The campaign

Legislatively referred bond issue; no organized opposition or money reported.

Also on the Arkansas ballot

Issue 1

Only U.S. citizens may vote

>99%

Issue 2

Right to bear arms shall not be infringed

>99%

Issue 3

Economic development districts and public loans

72%

Polls of the measure

1 poll

Pollster	Sample	Ended	Yes	No	Undecided	Yes, adjusted
Talk Business & Politics-Hendrix College Poll	1,217 LV	2026-08-12	66	10	24	74.0%

How this is built

Issue 4 is forecast as a bonds and budgets measure whose Yes vote leans to neither party. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Arkansas's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: axios.com , theballotbrief.com , talkbusiness.net , uaex.uada.edu. All measures.