2026 ballot measure forecast
Alaska Ballot Measure 2
Repeal open primaries and ranked choice voting
Repeals the top four open primary and ranked choice general elections, restoring party primaries, and repeals 2020 campaign finance disclosure rules. The forecast has Yes at 46.0 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 35% chance to pass.
Chance to pass
35%2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
46.0%80% range 33 to 59
Needs
50%a simple majority
Polling average
NoneNo public polls found
County forecast
10 of 30 counties vote YesNo +30Yes +30Hover a county for its forecast
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580- History and structure
- 46.0% Yes
- Polls
- None
- Forecast
- 46.0% Yes
- Yes leans
- Republican
- Rule to pass
- Simple majority of votes cast on the measure.
The campaign
Repeal Now (yes) raised 1.1 million, 846,000 from Aurora Action Network; No on 2 / Protect Alaska's Elections raised 5.75 million, 4 million from Unite America. 2024 repeal failed by 737 votes.
Also on the Alaska ballot
Ballot Measure 3
Only U.S. citizens may vote
>99%
Polls of the measure
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Yes | No | Undecided | Yes, adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot. | ||||||
How this is built
Ballot Measure 2 is forecast as a ranked choice and primaries measure whose Yes vote leans Republican. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Alaska's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: alaskapublic.org, alaskabeacon.com, akcommonground.org. All measures.