2026 ballot measure forecast

Tennessee Amendment 1

Remove right to bail for specified serious offenses

Removes the constitutional right to bail for defendants charged with specified serious felonies when proof is evident, letting judges deny pretrial release. The forecast has Yes at 78.1 percent against the 53.2 percent it needs, a >99% chance to pass.

Very likely to passConstitutional amendment referred by the legislatureCriminal justiceUpdated October 17, 2026

Chance to pass

>99%

2,000 simulations

Forecast Yes

78.1%

80% range 68 to 86

Needs

53.2%

a majority of all ballots cast, so a skipped question counts as No

Polling average

None

No public polls found

County forecast

95 of 95 counties vote Yes

No +30Yes +30Hover a county for its forecast

Where the Yes vote lands

needs 53.2

2035506580

History and structure: 78.1% Yes
Polls: None
Forecast: 78.1% Yes
Yes leans: Republican
Rule to pass: Must receive a majority of all votes cast in the governor's race, not just a majority of votes on the amendment.

The campaign

Sponsored by House Speaker Cameron Sexton R; Tennessee Association of Professional Bail Agents organizing opposition; no money reported.

Also on the Tennessee ballot

Amendment 2

Ban a state property tax

98%

Amendment 3

Marsy's Law crime victims' rights

95%

Polls of the measure

no polls

Pollster	Sample	Ended	Yes	No	Undecided	Yes, adjusted
No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot.

How this is built

Amendment 1 is forecast as a criminal justice measure whose Yes vote leans Republican. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Tennessee's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: theballotbrief.com , tennesseelookout.com , fox17.com. All measures.