2026 ballot measure forecast
Indiana Public Question #1
Allow judges to deny bail to dangerous defendants
Amends Article 1, Section 17 so courts may deny bail to people charged with offenses other than murder or treason when proof is evident and the state shows by clear and convincing evidence that no release conditions can protect the community. The forecast has Yes at 76.2 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a >99% chance to pass.
Chance to pass
>99%2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
76.2%80% range 65 to 84
Needs
50%a simple majority
Polling average
NoneNo public polls found
County forecast
92 of 92 counties vote YesNo +30Yes +30Hover a county for its forecast
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580- History and structure
- 76.2% Yes
- Polls
- None
- Forecast
- 76.2% Yes
- Yes leans
- Republican
- Rule to pass
- Majority of voters on the question. SJR 1 first passed 2023, second passage Feb 2026 (House 75-11).
The campaign
Yes: Sen. Eric Koch and Rep. Chris Jeter, Republican legislative leadership. No: legislative Democrats and civil liberties critics; no organized campaign or money reported.
Also on the Indiana ballot
Public Question #2
Let city or town judges live in adjacent county
91%
Polls of the measure
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Yes | No | Undecided | Yes, adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot. | ||||||
How this is built
Public Question #1 is forecast as a criminal justice measure whose Yes vote leans Republican. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Indiana's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: indianacapitalchronicle.com, fox19.com, in.gov, in.gov. All measures.