2026 ballot measure forecast

Massachusetts Question 5

Change state revenue cap and rebate excess

Bases the state tax revenue limit on prior year actual net state revenue plus wage and salary growth and rebates revenue above the limit to taxpayers. The forecast has Yes at 60.6 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 98% chance to pass.

Very likely to passCitizen initiated statuteIncome taxUpdated October 17, 2026

Chance to pass

98%

2,000 simulations

Forecast Yes

60.6%

80% range 54 to 67

Needs

50%

a majority, with Yes at least 30 percent of all ballots

Polling average

64.5%

Yes, with undecided split two to one for No

County forecast

14 of 14 counties vote Yes

No +30Yes +30Hover a county for its forecast

Where the Yes vote lands

needs 50

2035506580

History and structure: 45.4% Yes
Polls: 64.5% Yes
Forecast: 60.6% Yes
Yes leans: Republican
Rule to pass: Initiative statute: majority of votes on the question AND yes votes at least 30 percent of all ballots cast.

The campaign

Massachusetts Opportunity Alliance business coalition (Taxpayers for an Affordable Massachusetts) about $1.9M in-kind; labor unions (Protect Massachusetts' Future) over $700K opposing.

Also on the Massachusetts ballot

Question 1

Apply public records law to Legislature and governor

>99%

Question 2

Collective bargaining for public defender agency staff

>99%

Question 3

Single all-party primary, top two advance

60%

Question 4

Election Day voter registration

>99%

Question 6

Create Nature for All conservation fund

>99%

Question 7

Allow single-family homes on smaller lots

>99%

Question 8

Repeal recreational marijuana sales

<1%

Question 9

Keep or repeal 2024 gun law

>99%

Polls of the measure

3 polls

Pollster	Sample	Ended	Yes	No	Undecided	Yes, adjusted
UMass Amherst Poll / YouGov	800 RV	2026-10-12	58	20	13	68.5%
MassINC Polling Group	800 LV	2026-09-22	47	26	25	56.5%
UMass Amherst Poll / YouGov	800 RV	2026-08-12	59	14	16	72.3%

How this is built

Question 5 is forecast as a income tax measure whose Yes vote leans Republican. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Massachusetts's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: sec.state.ma.us , boston.com , nbcboston.com , commonwealthbeacon.org. All measures.