2026 ballot measure forecast

Florida Amendment 3

Large homestead property tax cut toward elimination

Exempts the first $250,000 of homestead value from non school levies on a schedule toward full elimination, limits local property tax uses and future business assessments, and requires five years residency for new residents to get the larger exemption. The forecast has Yes at 61.7 percent against the 60 percent it needs, a 65% chance to pass.

Leans passConstitutional amendment referred by the legislatureProperty taxUpdated October 17, 2026

Chance to pass

65%

2,000 simulations

Forecast Yes

61.7%

80% range 56 to 67

Needs

60%

60 percent of the votes on the question

Polling average

60.2%

Yes, with undecided split two to one for No

County forecast

67 of 67 counties vote Yes

No +30Yes +30Hover a county for its forecast

Where the Yes vote lands

needs 60

2035506580

History and structure: 69.1% Yes
Polls: 60.2% Yes
Forecast: 61.7% Yes
Yes leans: Republican
Rule to pass: Florida constitutional amendments need 60% of votes cast on the measure. Placed by HJR 1F.

The campaign

Yes on 3 backed by RPOF, Gov. DeSantis and Florida Realtors, which has spent about $18M; opposed by the Florida Democratic Party, many local officials, sheriffs and public employee unions; Florida Policy Institute estimates $12B recurring local revenue loss.

Also on the Florida ballot

Amendment 1

Bigger rainy day fund with required deposits

70%

Amendment 2

Property tax exemption for farm equipment

73%

Polls of the measure

10 polls

Pollster	Sample	Ended	Yes	No	Undecided	Yes, adjusted
MDW Communications / EDGE Communications	2,351 LV	2026-10-10	50	27	23	57.7%
Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research	716 LV	2026-10-09	56	21	23	63.7%
St. Pete Polls	836 LV	2026-10-07	42	35	23	49.7%
Targoz Market Research	857 LV	2026-10-04	63	21	15	68.7%
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy	625 LV	2026-10-01	55	26	19	61.3%
McLaughlin & Associates	800 LV	2026-10-01	53	28	19	59.3%
Sachs Media	800 RV	2026-08-18	63	37		63.0%
Sachs Media		2026-08-03	64
University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab		2026-07-17	61	32		63.3%
Sachs Media	850 RV	2026-06-24	64	36		64.0%

How this is built

Amendment 3 is forecast as a property tax measure whose Yes vote leans Republican. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Florida's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: theballotbrief.com , constitutionalinitiatives.dos.fl.gov , cpapracticeadvisor.com , rismedia.com. All measures.