2026 ballot measure forecast
North Carolina Property Tax Limit Amendment
Require limits on local property tax increases
Requires the General Assembly to enact limits on how much local governments can raise property taxes. The forecast has Yes at 73.0 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a >99% chance to pass.
Chance to pass
>99%2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
73.0%80% range 66 to 79
Needs
50%a simple majority
Polling average
76.7%Yes, with undecided split two to one for No
County forecast
100 of 100 counties vote YesNo +30Yes +30Hover a county for its forecast
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580- History and structure
- 67.4% Yes
- Polls
- 76.7% Yes
- Forecast
- 73.0% Yes
- Yes leans
- Republican
The campaign
Backed by Republican legislators incl. Senate Leader Berger; local government advocates and Democrats warn of service cuts; targeted by the campaign against the two tax amendments.
Also on the North Carolina ballot
Photo ID Amendment
Photo ID for all voters including mail
>99%
Income Tax Cap Amendment
Cap state income tax rate at 3.5%
>99%
Polls of the measure
2 polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Yes | No | Undecided | Yes, adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elon University Poll / YouGov | LV | 2026-08-31 | 72 | 14 | 14 | 76.7% |
| YouGov | 1,000 A | 79 |
How this is built
Property Tax Limit Amendment is forecast as a property tax measure whose Yes vote leans Republican. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with North Carolina's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: s3.amazonaws.com, theballotbrief.com, ncnewsline.com, elon.edu. All measures.