2026 ballot measure forecast

Vermont Proposal 4

Constitutional equal protection guarantee

Bars the state from denying equal treatment based on race, sex, religion, disability, sexual orientation, gender identity and other traits, while allowing measures for historically disadvantaged groups. The forecast has Yes at 74.5 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a >99% chance to pass.

Very likely to passConstitutional amendment referred by the legislatureCivil rightsUpdated October 17, 2026

Chance to pass

>99%

2,000 simulations

Forecast Yes

74.5%

80% range 69 to 80

Needs

50%

a simple majority

Polling average

72.7%

Yes, with undecided split two to one for No

County forecast

14 of 14 counties vote Yes

No +30Yes +30Hover a county for its forecast

Where the Yes vote lands

needs 50

2035506580

History and structure: 78.0% Yes
Polls: 72.7% Yes
Forecast: 74.5% Yes
Yes leans: Democratic
Rule to pass: Simple majority.

The campaign

Backed by Democratic legislators and the Vermont Human Rights Commission; small opposition group noprop4vt.org.

Also on the Vermont ballot

Proposal 3

Constitutional right to collective bargaining

>99%

Polls of the measure

1 poll

Pollster	Sample	Ended	Yes	No	Undecided	Yes, adjusted
UNH Survey Center (Green Mountain State Poll)	835 LV	2026-09-21	69	21	9	72.7%

How this is built

Proposal 4 is forecast as a civil rights measure whose Yes vote leans Democratic. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Vermont's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: news.ballotpedia.org , sevendaysvt.com. All measures.