2026 ballot measure forecast

Massachusetts Question 2

Collective bargaining for public defender agency staff

Lets Committee for Public Counsel Services employees, including public defenders, unionize and bargain collectively, and raises bar advocate pay. The forecast has Yes at 63.3 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a >99% chance to pass.

Very likely to passCitizen initiated statuteLaborUpdated October 17, 2026

Chance to pass

>99%

2,000 simulations

Forecast Yes

63.3%

80% range 58 to 69

Needs

50%

a majority, with Yes at least 30 percent of all ballots

Polling average

62.1%

Yes, with undecided split two to one for No

County forecast

14 of 14 counties vote Yes

No +30Yes +30Hover a county for its forecast

Where the Yes vote lands

needs 50

2035506580

History and structure: 67.6% Yes
Polls: 62.1% Yes
Forecast: 63.3% Yes
Yes leans: Democratic
Rule to pass: Initiative statute: majority of votes on the question AND yes votes at least 30 percent of all ballots cast.

The campaign

Labor Unions for Public Counsel Workers Rights supports; no organized opposition filed; supporters spent at least $1M.

Also on the Massachusetts ballot

Question 1

Apply public records law to Legislature and governor

>99%

Question 3

Single all-party primary, top two advance

60%

Question 4

Election Day voter registration

>99%

Question 5

Change state revenue cap and rebate excess

98%

Question 6

Create Nature for All conservation fund

>99%

Question 7

Allow single-family homes on smaller lots

>99%

Question 8

Repeal recreational marijuana sales

<1%

Question 9

Keep or repeal 2024 gun law

>99%

Polls of the measure

3 polls

Pollster	Sample	Ended	Yes	No	Undecided	Yes, adjusted
UMass Amherst Poll / YouGov	800 RV	2026-10-12	53	19	14	67.1%
MassINC Polling Group	800 LV	2026-09-22	48	25	26	57.2%
UMass Amherst Poll / YouGov	800 RV	2026-08-12	45	24	18	58.6%

How this is built

Question 2 is forecast as a labor measure whose Yes vote leans Democratic. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Massachusetts's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: sec.state.ma.us , boston.com , nbcboston.com , commonwealthbeacon.org. All measures.