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15 DAYS OUT
NE GovPillen R +0.8GA GovBottoms D +0.8KS GovHolscher D +0.8KS SenMarshall R +1.3IA SenTurek D +1.4AK SenPeltola D +1.4SC SenAndrews D +1.5TX SenTalarico D +2.0TX GovAbbott R +2.2ME SenJackson D +2.5WI GovCrowley D +2.8NE SenOsborn I +3.4OH SenBrown D +3.8NV GovFord D +4.0OH GovActon D +4.7FL GovDonalds R +4.9
2026 ballot measure forecast

Missouri Amendment 7

Create Show-Me Prosperity Fund to replace state taxes

Creates a permanent endowment meant to eventually eliminate state taxes, barring spending until the Treasurer certifies it can replace them and capping yearly draws at 3% of the five-year average value. The forecast has Yes at 66.7 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 94% chance to pass.

Likely to passConstitutional amendment referred by the legislatureIncome taxUpdated October 17, 2026
Chance to pass
94%
2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
66.7%
80% range 54 to 78
Needs
50%
a simple majority
Polling average
None
No public polls found

County forecast

114 of 115 counties vote Yes
No +30Yes +30Hover a county for its forecast
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580
History and structure
66.7% Yes
Polls
None
Forecast
66.7% Yes
Yes leans
Republican
Rule to pass
Simple majority. SS SCS SJR 95 (2026).
The campaign

Placed by GOP legislature; no campaign or money reported.

Also on the Missouri ballot

Amendment 3
Repeal 2024 abortion rights amendment, restrict abortion
42%
Amendment 6
Protect citizen initiatives from legislative repeal
77%
Amendment 8
Constitutionally require elected county sheriffs
>99%
Proposition A
Keep 2025 Republican-drawn congressional map
44%

Polls of the measure

no polls
PollsterSampleEndedYesNoUndecidedYes, adjusted
No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot.
How this is built
Amendment 7 is forecast as a income tax measure whose Yes vote leans Republican. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Missouri's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: sos.mo.gov, kcur.org. All measures.