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15 DAYS OUT
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2026 ballot measure forecast

North Dakota Constitutional Measure No. 1

Require 60% voter approval for constitutional amendments

Requires future constitutional amendments, whether legislative or initiated, to win at least 60% voter approval to take effect. The forecast has Yes at 52.8 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 61% chance to pass.

Leans passConstitutional amendment referred by the legislatureHigher bars to passUpdated October 17, 2026
Chance to pass
61%
2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
52.8%
80% range 39 to 66
Needs
50%
a simple majority
Polling average
None
No public polls found

County forecast

47 of 53 counties vote Yes
No +30Yes +30Hover a county for its forecast
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580
History and structure
52.8% Yes
Polls
None
Forecast
52.8% Yes
Yes leans
Republican
Rule to pass
Simple majority to adopt. Referred by HCR 3003 (2025).
The campaign

Yes: legislative Republicans (Rep. Robin Weisz), North Dakota Farm Bureau. No organized No campaign or money found.

Also on the North Dakota ballot

Initiated Constitutional Measure No. 2
Free breakfast and lunch for all public school students
37%

Polls of the measure

no polls
PollsterSampleEndedYesNoUndecidedYes, adjusted
No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot.
How this is built
Constitutional Measure No. 1 is forecast as a higher bars to pass measure whose Yes vote leans Republican. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with North Dakota's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: valleynewslive.com, ndfb.org, northdakotamonitor.com, sos.nd.gov. All measures.