2026 ballot measure forecast

Hawaii Question 2

County tax increment bonds for infrastructure

Lets counties issue bonds for sewer, water and drainage in designated districts repaid from property tax revenue growth, outside debt limits. The forecast has Yes at 68.4 percent against the 53.2 percent it needs, a 93% chance to pass.

Likely to passConstitutional amendment referred by the legislatureBonds and budgetsUpdated October 17, 2026

Chance to pass

93%

2,000 simulations

Forecast Yes

68.4%

80% range 55 to 79

Needs

53.2%

a majority of all ballots cast, so a skipped question counts as No

Polling average

None

No public polls found

County forecast

4 of 4 counties vote Yes

No +30Yes +30Hover a county for its forecast

Where the Yes vote lands

needs 53.2

2035506580

History and structure: 68.4% Yes
Polls: None
Forecast: 68.4% Yes
Yes leans: Neither party
Rule to pass: Must win a majority of all ballots cast in the election; blank votes count as no.

The campaign

Referred by Legislature; supporters say it aids housing; no organized campaigns reported.

Also on the Hawaii ballot

Question 1

More Senate time on judicial appointments

84%

Polls of the measure

no polls

Pollster	Sample	Ended	Yes	No	Undecided	Yes, adjusted
No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot.

How this is built

Question 2 is forecast as a bonds and budgets measure whose Yes vote leans to neither party. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Hawaii's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: hawaiipublicradio.org. All measures.