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15 DAYS OUT
NE GovPillen R +0.8GA GovBottoms D +0.8KS GovHolscher D +0.8KS SenMarshall R +1.3IA SenTurek D +1.4AK SenPeltola D +1.4SC SenAndrews D +1.5TX SenTalarico D +2.0TX GovAbbott R +2.2ME SenJackson D +2.5WI GovCrowley D +2.8NE SenOsborn I +3.4OH SenBrown D +3.8NV GovFord D +4.0OH GovActon D +4.7FL GovDonalds R +4.9
2026 ballot measure forecast

District of Columbia Initiative 86

Ban sale of force-fed foie gras

Prohibits selling foie gras produced by force-feeding birds in the District, effective July 1, 2027. The forecast has Yes at 57.4 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 77% chance to pass.

Likely to passCitizen initiated statuteAnimals and huntingUpdated October 17, 2026
Chance to pass
77%
2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
57.4%
80% range 44 to 70
Needs
50%
a simple majority
Polling average
None
No public polls found

County forecast

statewide
One statewide unit; no county map for this measure.
No +30Yes +30Hover a county for its forecast
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580
History and structure
57.4% Yes
Polls
None
Forecast
57.4% Yes
Yes leans
Neither party
Rule to pass
Simple majority.
The campaign

Pro-Animal DC; 31,726 valid signatures of 46,020 submitted (23,940 needed), certified Aug 5, 2026; no organized opposition or money reported.

Polls of the measure

no polls
PollsterSampleEndedYesNoUndecidedYes, adjusted
No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot.
How this is built
Initiative 86 is forecast as a animals and hunting measure whose Yes vote leans to neither party. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with District of Columbia's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: popville.com. All measures.