2026 ballot measure forecast

Rhode Island Question 3

$100M economic development bond

Authorizes $100M in bonds: $55M site development including Quonset and I-195 District, $45M growth industry infrastructure. The forecast has Yes at 66.4 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 95% chance to pass.

Very likely to passBond issueBonds and budgetsUpdated October 17, 2026

Chance to pass

95%

2,000 simulations

Forecast Yes

66.4%

80% range 54 to 77

Needs

50%

a simple majority

Polling average

None

No public polls found

County forecast

5 of 5 counties vote Yes

No +30Yes +30Hover a county for its forecast

Where the Yes vote lands

needs 50

2035506580

History and structure: 66.4% Yes
Polls: None
Forecast: 66.4% Yes
Yes leans: Neither party
Rule to pass: Simple majority of those voting on the question. Question numbers follow the enacted budget (H 7127, Article 5) order; confirm against the official ballot.

The campaign

Placed by the FY2027 budget signed June 12, 2026; no organized opposition or polling found.

Also on the Rhode Island ballot

Question 1

$275M higher education facilities bond

94%

Question 2

$120M housing and homeownership bond

95%

Question 4

$50M cultural economy bond

94%

Question 5

$55M green economy bond

95%

Polls of the measure

no polls

Pollster	Sample	Ended	Yes	No	Undecided	Yes, adjusted
No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot.

How this is built

Question 3 is forecast as a bonds and budgets measure whose Yes vote leans to neither party. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Rhode Island's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: webserver.rilegislature.gov , news.ballotpedia.org. All measures.