2026 ballot measure forecast
California Proposition 40
One time 5 percent billionaire wealth tax
Imposes a one time 5 percent tax on net worth above 1 billion dollars for certain individuals and trusts; 90 percent to health care, 10 percent to schools and food aid. The forecast has Yes at 51.8 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 65% chance to pass.
Chance to pass
65%2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
51.8%80% range 45 to 58
Needs
50%a simple majority
Polling average
50.9%Yes, with undecided split two to one for No
County forecast
21 of 58 counties vote YesNo +30Yes +30Hover a county for its forecast
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580- History and structure
- 55.1% Yes
- Polls
- 50.9% Yes
- Forecast
- 51.8% Yes
- Yes leans
- Democratic
- Rule to pass
- Simple majority, but Props 41 and 42 contain conflict provisions that can nullify Prop 40 if they pass with more yes votes.
The campaign
Placed by SEIU United Healthcare Workers West; opposed by billionaire funded campaigns behind Props 41 and 42.
Also on the California ballot
Proposition 1
Affordable housing and veterans housing bond
93%
Proposition 2
Raise rainy day fund cap to 20 percent
>99%
Proposition 3
Make top income tax rates permanent
92%
Proposition 4
Allow public financing of campaigns
60%
Proposition 5
Recall: remove successor election
39%
Proposition 37
Loans for middle income buyers of new homes
95%
Proposition 38
Immunology research bonds
90%
Proposition 39
Voter ID and citizenship verification
17%
Proposition 41
Audits of new special taxes, Gann limit rule
31%
Proposition 42
Ban new state wealth and personal property taxes
66%
Proposition 43
Two thirds vote for local special taxes
4%
Proposition 44
Community clinics must spend 90 percent on services
7%
Proposition 45
Fast track CEQA review for essential projects
63%
Polls of the measure
3 polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Yes | No | Undecided | Yes, adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies | 4,512 LV | 2026-09-20 | 45 | 42 | 13 | 49.3% |
| Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC Statewide Survey) | 1,103 LV | 2026-09-10 | 52 | 46 | 52.7% | |
| UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies | 2,310 LV | 2026-08-09 | 48 | 41 | 11 | 51.7% |
How this is built
Proposition 40 is forecast as a other taxes measure whose Yes vote leans Democratic. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with California's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov, growsf.org, ppic.org, ppic.org. All measures.