2026 ballot measure forecast

Arkansas Issue 3

Economic development districts and public loans

Lets the General Assembly create economic development districts and fund programs, loans and grants of public money, including district bonds for industrial, headquarters or sports projects. The forecast has Yes at 54.1 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 72% chance to pass.

Leans passConstitutional amendment referred by the legislatureOther taxesUpdated October 17, 2026

Chance to pass

72%

2,000 simulations

Forecast Yes

54.1%

80% range 46 to 62

Needs

50%

a simple majority

Polling average

49.7%

Yes, with undecided split two to one for No

County forecast

75 of 75 counties vote Yes

No +30Yes +30Hover a county for its forecast

Where the Yes vote lands

needs 50

2035506580

History and structure: 59.9% Yes
Polls: 49.7% Yes
Forecast: 54.1% Yes
Yes leans: Neither party

The campaign

No organized support or opposition or money reported.

Also on the Arkansas ballot

Issue 1

Only U.S. citizens may vote

>99%

Issue 2

Right to bear arms shall not be infringed

>99%

Issue 4

$500 million water infrastructure bonds

>99%

Polls of the measure

1 poll

Pollster	Sample	Ended	Yes	No	Undecided	Yes, adjusted
Talk Business & Politics-Hendrix College Poll	1,217 LV	2026-08-12	37	25	38	49.7%

How this is built

Issue 3 is forecast as a other taxes measure whose Yes vote leans to neither party. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Arkansas's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: axios.com , theballotbrief.com , talkbusiness.net , uaex.uada.edu. All measures.