2026 ballot measure forecast
Missouri Amendment 6
Protect citizen initiatives from legislative repeal
Makes initiative and referendum a fundamental right, lets courts revise ballot summaries, bars the legislature from weakening those powers, and requires 80% of both chambers to send changes to voter-approved measures to the ballot. The forecast has Yes at 55.0 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 77% chance to pass.
Chance to pass
77%2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
55.0%80% range 47 to 63
Needs
50%a simple majority
Polling average
58.1%Yes, with undecided split two to one for No
County forecast
12 of 115 counties vote YesNo +30Yes +30Hover a county for its forecast
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580- History and structure
- 50.4% Yes
- Polls
- 58.1% Yes
- Forecast
- 55.0% Yes
- Yes leans
- Democratic
- Rule to pass
- Simple majority. Aug 4 Amendment 4, which would have required a majority in each congressional district for initiated amendments, failed, so the simple majority rule applies.
The campaign
Yes: Respect MO Voters / Yes on Amendment 6 PAC, $2.7M raised mostly from labor, $929K on broadcast ads from Sept 22. No: Missouri GOP committee resolution, Sen. Jason Bean forming a committee. SoS Hoskins tried to block it; courts restored it.
Polls of the measure
1 poll| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Yes | No | Undecided | Yes, adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 900 LV | 2026-08-24 | 48 | 21 | 32 | 58.1% |
How this is built
Amendment 6 is forecast as a elections measure whose Yes vote leans Democratic. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Missouri's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: sos.mo.gov, slu.edu, kcur.org, missouriindependent.com. All measures.