2026 ballot measure forecast
Missouri Proposition A
Keep 2025 Republican-drawn congressional map
A Yes vote approves HB 1 (2025 special session), replacing Missouri's congressional map with the 2025 boundaries; a No vote keeps the 2022 map. The 2026 election is being held under the 2022 map. The forecast has Yes at 48.9 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 44% chance to pass.
Chance to pass
44%2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
48.9%80% range 41 to 57
Needs
50%a simple majority
Polling average
46.0%Yes, with undecided split two to one for No
County forecast
108 of 115 counties vote YesNo +30Yes +30Hover a county for its forecast
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580- History and structure
- 53.2% Yes
- Polls
- 46.0% Yes
- Forecast
- 48.9% Yes
- Yes leans
- Republican
- Rule to pass
- Simple majority. Referendum petition by People Not Politicians; SoS tried to block it, courts put it on the ballot.
The campaign
No (repeal map): People Not Politicians, about $800K in TV ads booked. Yes (keep map): Missouri GOP committee resolution, Act for Missouri; Put Missouri First PAC has spent $2.9M, mostly on petition-stage fights and litigation.
Polls of the measure
2 pollsHow this is built
Proposition A is forecast as a redistricting measure whose Yes vote leans Republican. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Missouri's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: sos.mo.gov, slu.edu, kctv5.com, kcur.org. All measures.