2026 ballot measure forecast

South Dakota Constitutional Amendment L

Require 60% to pass constitutional amendments

Raises the vote needed to approve future constitutional amendments from a simple majority to 60% of votes cast. The forecast has Yes at 50.9 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 54% chance to pass.

Toss upConstitutional amendment referred by the legislatureHigher bars to passUpdated October 17, 2026

Chance to pass

54%

2,000 simulations

Forecast Yes

50.9%

80% range 38 to 65

Needs

50%

a simple majority

Polling average

None

No public polls found

County forecast

53 of 65 counties vote Yes

No +30Yes +30Hover a county for its forecast

Where the Yes vote lands

needs 50

2035506580

History and structure: 50.9% Yes
Polls: None
Forecast: 50.9% Yes
Yes leans: Republican
Rule to pass: Simple majority to adopt. HJR 5003 (2025).

The campaign

Yes: Rep. John Hughes and GOP legislators. No: Voter Defense Association of South Dakota, Dakota Rural Action; The Fairness Project has spent about $260K on ads against.

Also on the South Dakota ballot

Constitutional Amendment I

Tie Medicaid expansion to federal funding level

83%

Constitutional Amendment J

Only U.S. citizens may vote

>99%

Constitutional Amendment K

Create trust for unclaimed property fund

91%

Polls of the measure

no polls

Pollster	Sample	Ended	Yes	No	Undecided	Yes, adjusted
No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot.

How this is built

Constitutional Amendment L is forecast as a higher bars to pass measure whose Yes vote leans Republican. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with South Dakota's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: sdsos.gov , newsfromthestates.com , en.wikipedia.org. All measures.