2026 ballot measure forecast
New Mexico Constitutional Amendment 4
Tie legislator pay to median income
Gives legislators a salary tied to state median household income, with delayed implementation. The forecast has Yes at 69.0 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 97% chance to pass.
Chance to pass
97%2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
69.0%80% range 56 to 79
Needs
50%a simple majority
Polling average
NoneNo public polls found
County forecast
33 of 33 counties vote YesNo +30Yes +30Hover a county for its forecast
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580- History and structure
- 69.0% Yes
- Polls
- None
- Forecast
- 69.0% Yes
- Yes leans
- Neither party
- Rule to pass
- Simple majority of votes cast on the measure.
The campaign
Referred by Legislature; no campaign details found.
Also on the New Mexico ballot
Constitutional Amendment 1
End pocket veto, require veto explanations
97%
Constitutional Amendment 2
Allow school elections with partisan elections
84%
Constitutional Amendment 3
Nominating committee for university regents
94%
Bond Question 1
Senior citizen facilities bond
95%
Bond Question 2
Library acquisitions bond
94%
Bond Question 3
Higher education and tribal schools bond
93%
Polls of the measure
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Yes | No | Undecided | Yes, adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot. | ||||||
How this is built
Constitutional Amendment 4 is forecast as a government and ethics measure whose Yes vote leans to neither party. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with New Mexico's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: sos.nm.gov, sourcenm.com. All measures.