2026 ballot measure forecast

California Proposition 41

Audits of new special taxes, Gann limit rule

Requires audits of programs funded by new state special taxes and bars new state taxes from being excluded from the voter approved Gann spending limit. The forecast has Yes at 47.6 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 31% chance to pass.

Leans failCitizen initiated constitutional amendmentOther taxesUpdated October 17, 2026

Chance to pass

31%

2,000 simulations

Forecast Yes

47.6%

80% range 42 to 54

Needs

50%

a simple majority

Polling average

48.3%

Yes, with undecided split two to one for No

County forecast

35 of 58 counties vote Yes

No +30Yes +30Hover a county for its forecast

Where the Yes vote lands

needs 50

2035506580

History and structure: 44.9% Yes
Polls: 48.3% Yes
Forecast: 47.6% Yes
Yes leans: Republican
Rule to pass: Simple majority; conflict provision with Prop 40 (whichever has more yes votes prevails on conflicting provisions).

The campaign

Counter measure to Prop 40 backed by business and wealthy donors.

Also on the California ballot

Proposition 1

Affordable housing and veterans housing bond

93%

Proposition 2

Raise rainy day fund cap to 20 percent

>99%

Proposition 3

Make top income tax rates permanent

92%

Proposition 4

Allow public financing of campaigns

60%

Proposition 5

Recall: remove successor election

39%

Proposition 37

Loans for middle income buyers of new homes

95%

Proposition 38

Immunology research bonds

90%

Proposition 39

Voter ID and citizenship verification

17%

Proposition 40

One time 5 percent billionaire wealth tax

65%

Proposition 42

Ban new state wealth and personal property taxes

66%

Proposition 43

Two thirds vote for local special taxes

Proposition 44

Community clinics must spend 90 percent on services

Proposition 45

Fast track CEQA review for essential projects

63%

Polls of the measure

3 polls

Pollster	Sample	Ended	Yes	No	Undecided	Yes, adjusted
UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies	4,512 LV	2026-09-20	37	33	30	47.0%
Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC Statewide Survey)	1,103 LV	2026-09-10	51	44		52.7%
UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies	2,310 LV	2026-08-09	35	37	28	44.3%

How this is built

Proposition 41 is forecast as a other taxes measure whose Yes vote leans Republican. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with California's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov , growsf.org , ppic.org , escholarship.org. All measures.