2026 ballot measure forecast

Kansas Constitutional Amendment No. 1

Only U.S. citizens may vote

Amends the voter qualifications section of the Kansas Constitution to state that only U.S. citizens are eligible to vote in Kansas; citizenship is already required by state law. The forecast has Yes at 82.9 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a >99% chance to pass.

Very likely to passConstitutional amendment referred by the legislatureCitizen only votingUpdated October 17, 2026

Chance to pass

>99%

2,000 simulations

Forecast Yes

82.9%

80% range 74 to 89

Needs

50%

a simple majority

Polling average

None

No public polls found

County forecast

105 of 105 counties vote Yes

No +30Yes +30Hover a county for its forecast

Where the Yes vote lands

needs 50

2035506580

History and structure: 82.9% Yes
Polls: None
Forecast: 82.9% Yes
Yes leans: Republican
Rule to pass: Simple majority. Referred by HCR 5004 (2025).

The campaign

Placed by GOP legislature; no organized campaigns or spending reported.

Polls of the measure

no polls

Pollster	Sample	Ended	Yes	No	Undecided	Yes, adjusted
No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot.

How this is built

Constitutional Amendment No. 1 is forecast as a citizen only voting measure whose Yes vote leans Republican. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Kansas's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: stantoncountyks.com , kctv5.com , kcur.org , news.ballotpedia.org. All measures.