SearchThe Weighting Room
15 DAYS OUT
NE GovPillen R +0.8GA GovBottoms D +0.8KS GovHolscher D +0.8KS SenMarshall R +1.3IA SenTurek D +1.4AK SenPeltola D +1.4SC SenAndrews D +1.5TX SenTalarico D +2.0TX GovAbbott R +2.2ME SenJackson D +2.5WI GovCrowley D +2.8NE SenOsborn I +3.4OH SenBrown D +3.8NV GovFord D +4.0OH GovActon D +4.7FL GovDonalds R +4.9
2026 ballot measure forecast

Montana I-194

Bar corporate political spending via charter limits

Limits powers of artificial persons so corporations and other entities cannot spend on candidates, ballot measures or parties. The forecast has Yes at 61.2 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 86% chance to pass.

Likely to passCitizen initiated statuteGovernment and ethicsUpdated October 17, 2026
Chance to pass
86%
2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
61.2%
80% range 48 to 73
Needs
50%
a simple majority
Polling average
None
No public polls found

County forecast

51 of 56 counties vote Yes
No +30Yes +30Hover a county for its forecast
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580
History and structure
61.2% Yes
Polls
None
Forecast
61.2% Yes
Yes leans
Democratic
Rule to pass
Simple majority of votes cast on the measure.
The campaign

Transparent Election Initiative PAC, 305,000 raised, endorsed by former Gov. Steve Bullock; opposed by Montanans for Free Speech.

Also on the Montana ballot

CI-132
Keep judicial elections nonpartisan
60%
CI-133
Protect initiative and referendum rights
49%

Polls of the measure

no polls
PollsterSampleEndedYesNoUndecidedYes, adjusted
No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot.
How this is built
I-194 is forecast as a government and ethics measure whose Yes vote leans Democratic. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Montana's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: sosmt.gov, news.ballotpedia.org. All measures.