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2026 ballot measure forecast

California Proposition 4

Allow public financing of campaigns

Repeals the 1988 ban on public financing so state and local governments may fund candidate campaigns subject to spending limits. The forecast has Yes at 51.6 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 60% chance to pass.

Toss upStatute referred by the legislatureGovernment and ethicsUpdated October 17, 2026
Chance to pass
60%
2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
51.6%
80% range 45 to 58
Needs
50%
a simple majority
Polling average
44.5%
Yes, with undecided split two to one for No

County forecast

23 of 58 counties vote Yes
No +30Yes +30Hover a county for its forecast
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580
History and structure
74.4% Yes
Polls
44.5% Yes
Forecast
51.6% Yes
Yes leans
Democratic
Rule to pass
Simple majority of votes cast on the measure.
The campaign

SB 42, California Fair Elections Act of 2026, placed by Legislature. No major campaign money reported.

Also on the California ballot

Proposition 1
Affordable housing and veterans housing bond
93%
Proposition 2
Raise rainy day fund cap to 20 percent
>99%
Proposition 3
Make top income tax rates permanent
92%
Proposition 5
Recall: remove successor election
39%
Proposition 37
Loans for middle income buyers of new homes
95%
Proposition 38
Immunology research bonds
90%
Proposition 39
Voter ID and citizenship verification
17%
Proposition 40
One time 5 percent billionaire wealth tax
65%
Proposition 41
Audits of new special taxes, Gann limit rule
31%
Proposition 42
Ban new state wealth and personal property taxes
66%
Proposition 43
Two thirds vote for local special taxes
4%
Proposition 44
Community clinics must spend 90 percent on services
7%
Proposition 45
Fast track CEQA review for essential projects
63%

Polls of the measure

2 polls
PollsterSampleEndedYesNoUndecidedYes, adjusted
UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies2,251 LV2026-09-2035353045.0%
Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC Statewide Survey)1,103 LV2026-09-10425343.7%
How this is built
Proposition 4 is forecast as a government and ethics measure whose Yes vote leans Democratic. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with California's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov, growsf.org, ppic.org, escholarship.org. All measures.