2026 ballot measure forecast

Nevada Question 7

Photo voter ID requirement

Second vote to require photo ID to vote in person and an ID number on mail ballots, effective for 2028 elections. The forecast has Yes at 64.0 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 91% chance to pass.

Likely to passCitizen initiated constitutional amendmentVoter IDUpdated October 17, 2026

Chance to pass

91%

2,000 simulations

Forecast Yes

64.0%

80% range 51 to 75

Needs

50%

a simple majority

Polling average

None

No public polls found

County forecast

17 of 17 counties vote Yes

No +30Yes +30Hover a county for its forecast

Where the Yes vote lands

needs 50

2035506580

History and structure: 64.0% Yes
Polls: None
Forecast: 64.0% Yes
Yes leans: Republican
Rule to pass: Simple majority; this is the required second approval of an initiated constitutional amendment first passed in 2024. If it fails, the amendment does not take effect. Passed with 73 percent in 2024.

The campaign

Backed by Dave Gibbs with support from Gov. Joe Lombardo; critics say unnecessary. No money figures found.

Also on the Nevada ballot

Question 6

Constitutional right to abortion until viability

85%

Polls of the measure

no polls

Pollster	Sample	Ended	Yes	No	Undecided	Yes, adjusted
No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot.

How this is built

Question 7 is forecast as a voter id measure whose Yes vote leans Republican. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Nevada's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: news3lv.com , ktnv.com. All measures.