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15 DAYS OUT
NE GovPillen R +0.8GA GovBottoms D +0.8KS GovHolscher D +0.8KS SenMarshall R +1.3IA SenTurek D +1.4AK SenPeltola D +1.4SC SenAndrews D +1.5TX SenTalarico D +2.0TX GovAbbott R +2.2ME SenJackson D +2.5WI GovCrowley D +2.8NE SenOsborn I +3.4OH SenBrown D +3.8NV GovFord D +4.0OH GovActon D +4.7FL GovDonalds R +4.9
2026 ballot measure forecast

Louisiana Amendment 3

No post conviction bail for crimes against minors

Prohibits post conviction bail for people convicted of certain aggravated offenses against children. The forecast has Yes at 76.8 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a >99% chance to pass.

Very likely to passConstitutional amendment referred by the legislatureCriminal justiceUpdated October 17, 2026
Chance to pass
>99%
2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
76.8%
80% range 67 to 85
Needs
50%
a simple majority
Polling average
None
No public polls found

County forecast

64 of 64 parishes vote Yes
No +30Yes +30Hover a county for its forecast
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580
History and structure
76.8% Yes
Polls
None
Forecast
76.8% Yes
Yes leans
Republican
The campaign

Legislative referral; no organized campaign, money or polling reported; PAR Louisiana guide summarizes arguments.

Also on the Louisiana ballot

Amendment 1
Surviving spouse can transfer disabled veteran exemption
94%
Amendment 2
Keep right to restore prior maximum millage
94%
Amendment 4
Lifetime two term limit for governor
97%
Amendment 5
Flexibility in paying retirement system debt
92%
Amendment 6
Extra local property tax exemption for seniors
94%
Amendment 7
Public funds for private drinking water lines
88%
Amendment 8
Bar foreign adversaries from expropriating property
91%
Amendment 9
Raise income limit for assessment freeze to $150,000
93%
Amendment 10
Tax exemption for rehabilitated blighted property
93%

Polls of the measure

no polls
PollsterSampleEndedYesNoUndecidedYes, adjusted
No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot.
How this is built
Amendment 3 is forecast as a criminal justice measure whose Yes vote leans Republican. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Louisiana's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: wafb.com, theballotbrief.com, news.ballotpedia.org. All measures.