2026 ballot measure forecast

Georgia Amendment 1

Raise conservation use acreage cap to 4,000

Doubles the maximum acreage that can qualify for bona fide conservation use property tax assessment from 2,000 to 4,000 acres. The forecast has Yes at 65.7 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 95% chance to pass.

Likely to passConstitutional amendment referred by the legislatureProperty taxUpdated October 17, 2026

Chance to pass

95%

2,000 simulations

Forecast Yes

65.7%

80% range 53 to 77

Needs

50%

a simple majority

Polling average

None

No public polls found

County forecast

159 of 159 counties vote Yes

No +30Yes +30Hover a county for its forecast

Where the Yes vote lands

needs 50

2035506580

History and structure: 65.7% Yes
Polls: None
Forecast: 65.7% Yes
Yes leans: Neither party

The campaign

HR 32 2025; passed with two thirds; no organized campaign or polling reported.

Also on the Georgia ballot

Amendment 2

Nonpartisan elections for all probate judges

83%

Amendment 3

Dedicated Next Generation 911 fund

91%

Polls of the measure

no polls

Pollster	Sample	Ended	Yes	No	Undecided	Yes, adjusted
No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot.

How this is built

Amendment 1 is forecast as a property tax measure whose Yes vote leans to neither party. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Georgia's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: sos.ga.gov , news4jax.com , theballotbrief.com. All measures.