2026 ballot measure forecast
Colorado Amendment 84
ID number required on mail ballots
Requires mail voters to give a signature plus an ID number such as last four SSN digits, checked against registration records. The forecast has Yes at 59.3 percent against the 55 percent it needs, a 66% chance to pass.
Chance to pass
66%2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
59.3%80% range 46 to 71
Needs
55%55 percent of the votes on the question
Polling average
NoneNo public polls found
County forecast
60 of 64 counties vote YesNo +30Yes +30Hover a county for its forecast
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 55
2035506580- History and structure
- 59.3% Yes
- Polls
- None
- Forecast
- 59.3% Yes
- Yes leans
- Republican
- Rule to pass
- Colorado constitutional amendments need 55 percent of votes cast on the measure.
The campaign
Citizen initiative; Colorado Democratic Party opposes.
Also on the Colorado ballot
Proposition NN
Raise TABOR cap for K-12 school funding
95%
Amendment 81
Police must report undocumented violent offenders to DHS
37%
Amendment 82
Constitutional right to natural gas
18%
Amendment 83
Constitutional right to hunt and fish
76%
Amendment 85
Plain language ballot questions
14%
Amendment 86
Limits on mid decade congressional redistricting
6%
Amendment 87
Graduated income tax for schools and health
33%
Proposition 132
Tougher fentanyl penalties
91%
Proposition 133
Life without parole for child sex trafficking
91%
Proposition 134
School sports teams by biological sex
58%
Proposition 135
Ban gender transition surgeries for minors
57%
Proposition 136
Cap income tax rate at 4.4 percent
51%
Proposition 137
Sporting goods sales tax for conservation
69%
Polls of the measure
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Yes | No | Undecided | Yes, adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot. | ||||||
How this is built
Amendment 84 is forecast as a voter id measure whose Yes vote leans Republican. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Colorado's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: news.ballotpedia.org, koaa.com, coloradodems.org. All measures.