SearchThe Weighting Room
15 DAYS OUT
NE GovPillen R +0.8GA GovBottoms D +0.8KS GovHolscher D +0.8KS SenMarshall R +1.3IA SenTurek D +1.4AK SenPeltola D +1.4SC SenAndrews D +1.5TX SenTalarico D +2.0TX GovAbbott R +2.2ME SenJackson D +2.5WI GovCrowley D +2.8NE SenOsborn I +3.4OH SenBrown D +3.8NV GovFord D +4.0OH GovActon D +4.7FL GovDonalds R +4.9
2026 ballot measure forecast

Florida Amendment 1

Bigger rainy day fund with required deposits

Raises the Budget Stabilization Fund cap to 25% of general revenue and requires annual transfers of $750 million until the cap is met, with limited suspension and withdrawal rules. The forecast has Yes at 65.2 percent against the 60 percent it needs, a 70% chance to pass.

Leans passConstitutional amendment referred by the legislatureBonds and budgetsUpdated October 17, 2026
Chance to pass
70%
2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
65.2%
80% range 52 to 76
Needs
60%
60 percent of the votes on the question
Polling average
None
No public polls found

County forecast

67 of 67 counties vote Yes
No +30Yes +30Hover a county for its forecast
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 60
2035506580
History and structure
65.2% Yes
Polls
None
Forecast
65.2% Yes
Yes leans
Neither party
Rule to pass
Florida constitutional amendments need 60% of votes cast on the measure.
The campaign

Republican Party of Florida endorses; Jolly D supports with guardrails; Gov. DeSantis calls it foolish and Donalds R opposes; Miami-Dade and Palm Beach Democratic parties urge no; no money reported.

Also on the Florida ballot

Amendment 2
Property tax exemption for farm equipment
73%
Amendment 3
Large homestead property tax cut toward elimination
65%

Polls of the measure

no polls
PollsterSampleEndedYesNoUndecidedYes, adjusted
No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot.
How this is built
Amendment 1 is forecast as a bonds and budgets measure whose Yes vote leans to neither party. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Florida's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: wlrn.org, theballotbrief.com, constitutionalinitiatives.dos.fl.gov. All measures.