2026 ballot measure forecast

North Carolina Photo ID Amendment

Photo ID for all voters including mail

Requires every voter, not only those voting in person, to present photo identification before voting. The forecast has Yes at 69.6 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a >99% chance to pass.

Very likely to passConstitutional amendment referred by the legislatureVoter IDUpdated October 17, 2026

Chance to pass

>99%

2,000 simulations

Forecast Yes

69.6%

80% range 62 to 77

Needs

50%

a simple majority

Polling average

67.0%

Yes, with undecided split two to one for No

County forecast

99 of 100 counties vote Yes

No +30Yes +30Hover a county for its forecast

Where the Yes vote lands

needs 50

2035506580

History and structure: 73.0% Yes
Polls: 67.0% Yes
Forecast: 69.6% Yes
Yes leans: Republican

The campaign

Backed by Republican legislative majority; opposed by Democrats and voting rights groups; no money reported.

Also on the North Carolina ballot

Income Tax Cap Amendment

Cap state income tax rate at 3.5%

>99%

Property Tax Limit Amendment

Require limits on local property tax increases

>99%

Polls of the measure

2 polls

Pollster	Sample	Ended	Yes	No	Undecided	Yes, adjusted
Elon University Poll / YouGov	LV	2026-08-31	63	25	12	67.0%
YouGov	1,000 A		70

How this is built

Photo ID Amendment is forecast as a voter id measure whose Yes vote leans Republican. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with North Carolina's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: s3.amazonaws.com , theballotbrief.com , ncnewsline.com , elon.edu. All measures.