2026 ballot measure forecast
Idaho Reproductive Freedom and Privacy Act
Restore abortion access before viability
Creates a statutory right to reproductive decisions including abortion before fetal viability, with emergencies after, and protects contraception and IVF. The forecast has Yes at 42.2 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 23% chance to pass.
Chance to pass
23%2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
42.2%80% range 30 to 56
Needs
50%a simple majority
Polling average
NoneNo public polls found
County forecast
5 of 44 counties vote YesNo +30Yes +30Hover a county for its forecast
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580- History and structure
- 42.2% Yes
- Polls
- None
- Forecast
- 42.2% Yes
- Yes leans
- Democratic
- Rule to pass
- Simple majority of votes cast on the measure.
The campaign
Citizen initiative led by organizer Melanie Folwell (Idahoans United for Women and Family); 75,478 signatures; opposed by Idaho Chooses Life.
Polls of the measure
1 poll| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Yes | No | Undecided | Yes, adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boise State University School of Public Service (2026 Idaho Public Policy Survey) | A | 61 | 28 | 12 | 64.4% |
How this is built
Reproductive Freedom and Privacy Act is forecast as a abortion measure whose Yes vote leans Democratic. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Idaho's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: kmvt.com, idahocapitalsun.com, idahocapitalsun.com. All measures.