2026 ballot measure forecast

Washington Initiative Measure No. IP26-645

Repeal millionaires income tax, ban income taxes

Repeals the 2026 9.9 percent tax on individual income over 1 million and bars state and local income taxes. The forecast has Yes at 43.1 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 11% chance to pass.

Likely to failCitizen initiated statuteIncome taxUpdated October 17, 2026

Chance to pass

11%

2,000 simulations

Forecast Yes

43.1%

80% range 36 to 50

Needs

50%

a simple majority

Polling average

41.4%

Yes, with undecided split two to one for No

County forecast

21 of 39 counties vote Yes

No +30Yes +30Hover a county for its forecast

Where the Yes vote lands

needs 50

2035506580

History and structure: 47.6% Yes
Polls: 41.4% Yes
Forecast: 43.1% Yes
Yes leans: Republican
Rule to pass: Simple majority of votes cast on the measure.

The campaign

Let's Go Washington initiative to the people; No campaign backed by Rick Steves and Ken Jennings; court upheld ballot language including fiscal impact statement (about 11.4 billion revenue loss FY2027 to 2031).

Also on the Washington ballot

Initiative Measure No. IL26-638

Girls' sports limited to biological females

73%

Initiative Measure No. IL26-001

Parents' Bill of Rights reinstatement

31%

Polls of the measure

2 polls

Pollster	Sample	Ended	Yes	No	Undecided	Yes, adjusted
DHM Research	400	2026-09-21	35	57	8	37.7%
DHM Research	400	2026-09-21	40	44	16	45.3%

How this is built

Initiative Measure No. IP26-645 is forecast as a income tax measure whose Yes vote leans Republican. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Washington's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: wastatepta.org , fox13seattle.com , komonews.com , theurbanist.org. All measures.