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15 DAYS OUT
NE GovPillen R +0.8GA GovBottoms D +0.8KS GovHolscher D +0.8KS SenMarshall R +1.3IA SenTurek D +1.4AK SenPeltola D +1.4SC SenAndrews D +1.5TX SenTalarico D +2.0TX GovAbbott R +2.2ME SenJackson D +2.5WI GovCrowley D +2.8NE SenOsborn I +3.4OH SenBrown D +3.8NV GovFord D +4.0OH GovActon D +4.7FL GovDonalds R +4.9
2026 ballot measure forecast

Oklahoma State Question 845

Restructure Judicial Nominating Commission

Changes who can serve on the Judicial Nominating Commission and how members are selected, including appointments by current congressional districts. The forecast has Yes at 78.6 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a >99% chance to pass.

Very likely to passConstitutional amendment referred by the legislatureCriminal justiceUpdated October 17, 2026
Chance to pass
>99%
2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
78.6%
80% range 68 to 87
Needs
50%
a simple majority
Polling average
None
No public polls found

County forecast

77 of 77 counties vote Yes
No +30Yes +30Hover a county for its forecast
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580
History and structure
78.6% Yes
Polls
None
Forecast
78.6% Yes
Yes leans
Republican
The campaign

Legislative referral from the GOP majority; Oklahoma Policy Institute urges no, saying it strips protections in choosing top judges; no money reported.

Also on the Oklahoma ballot

State Question 847
Lower annual caps on taxable property value growth
>99%

Polls of the measure

no polls
PollsterSampleEndedYesNoUndecidedYes, adjusted
No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot.
How this is built
State Question 845 is forecast as a criminal justice measure whose Yes vote leans Republican. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Oklahoma's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: okpolicy.org, theballotbrief.com, oklahoma.gov. All measures.