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15 DAYS OUT
NE GovPillen R +0.8GA GovBottoms D +0.8KS GovHolscher D +0.8KS SenMarshall R +1.3IA SenTurek D +1.4AK SenPeltola D +1.4SC SenAndrews D +1.5TX SenTalarico D +2.0TX GovAbbott R +2.2ME SenJackson D +2.5WI GovCrowley D +2.8NE SenOsborn I +3.4OH SenBrown D +3.8NV GovFord D +4.0OH GovActon D +4.7FL GovDonalds R +4.9
2026 ballot measure forecast

Colorado Proposition NN

Raise TABOR cap for K-12 school funding

Raises the TABOR revenue cap and keeps about 4.6 billion in surplus revenue for K-12 education. The forecast has Yes at 67.0 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 95% chance to pass.

Very likely to passStatute referred by the legislatureEducationUpdated October 17, 2026
Chance to pass
95%
2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
67.0%
80% range 55 to 78
Needs
50%
a simple majority
Polling average
None
No public polls found

County forecast

57 of 64 counties vote Yes
No +30Yes +30Hover a county for its forecast
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580
History and structure
67.0% Yes
Polls
None
Forecast
67.0% Yes
Yes leans
Democratic
Rule to pass
Simple majority of votes cast on the measure.
The campaign

Referred by Legislature (SB26-135). Colorado Democratic Party supports.

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Amendment 86
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Amendment 87
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Proposition 132
Tougher fentanyl penalties
91%
Proposition 133
Life without parole for child sex trafficking
91%
Proposition 134
School sports teams by biological sex
58%
Proposition 135
Ban gender transition surgeries for minors
57%
Proposition 136
Cap income tax rate at 4.4 percent
51%
Proposition 137
Sporting goods sales tax for conservation
69%

Polls of the measure

no polls
PollsterSampleEndedYesNoUndecidedYes, adjusted
No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot.
How this is built
Proposition NN is forecast as a education measure whose Yes vote leans Democratic. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Colorado's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: news.ballotpedia.org, koaa.com, coloradodems.org. All measures.