2026 ballot measure forecast

Wisconsin Question 1

Bar partial veto to raise taxes or fees

Bars the governor from using the partial veto to create or increase any tax or fee; it does not undo Gov. Evers' 2023 400-year school funding veto. The forecast has Yes at 59.9 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 85% chance to pass.

Likely to passConstitutional amendment referred by the legislatureOther taxesUpdated October 17, 2026

Chance to pass

85%

2,000 simulations

Forecast Yes

59.9%

80% range 48 to 72

Needs

50%

a simple majority

Polling average

None

No public polls found

County forecast

70 of 72 counties vote Yes

No +30Yes +30Hover a county for its forecast

Where the Yes vote lands

needs 50

2035506580

History and structure: 59.9% Yes
Polls: None
Forecast: 59.9% Yes
Yes leans: Republican
Rule to pass: Simple majority. Passed two consecutive legislatures.

The campaign

Yes: Republican legislative leaders. No: Democrats and school funding advocates. No money reported.

Also on the Wisconsin ballot

Question 2

Bar closing places of worship during emergencies

72%

Question 3

Ban government discrimination or preferences by race or sex

71%

Polls of the measure

no polls

Pollster	Sample	Ended	Yes	No	Undecided	Yes, adjusted
No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot.

How this is built

Question 1 is forecast as a other taxes measure whose Yes vote leans Republican. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Wisconsin's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: wpr.org , somerswi.gov , wisconsinexaminer.com. All measures.