2026 ballot measure forecast

Massachusetts Question 7

Allow single-family homes on smaller lots

Requires municipalities to allow single-family homes on residential lots of at least 5,000 square feet with 50 feet of frontage served by public water and sewer; Boston excluded. The forecast has Yes at 64.6 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a >99% chance to pass.

Very likely to passCitizen initiated statuteHousingUpdated October 17, 2026

Chance to pass

>99%

2,000 simulations

Forecast Yes

64.6%

80% range 59 to 70

Needs

50%

a majority, with Yes at least 30 percent of all ballots

Polling average

66.8%

Yes, with undecided split two to one for No

County forecast

14 of 14 counties vote Yes

No +30Yes +30Hover a county for its forecast

Where the Yes vote lands

needs 50

2035506580

History and structure: 54.6% Yes
Polls: 66.8% Yes
Forecast: 64.6% Yes
Yes leans: Neither party
Rule to pass: Initiative statute: majority of votes on the question AND yes votes at least 30 percent of all ballots cast.

The campaign

Legalize Starter Homes supports, spent at least $1M; Massachusetts Municipal Association opposes.

Also on the Massachusetts ballot

Question 1

Apply public records law to Legislature and governor

>99%

Question 2

Collective bargaining for public defender agency staff

>99%

Question 3

Single all-party primary, top two advance

60%

Question 4

Election Day voter registration

>99%

Question 5

Change state revenue cap and rebate excess

98%

Question 6

Create Nature for All conservation fund

>99%

Question 8

Repeal recreational marijuana sales

<1%

Question 9

Keep or repeal 2024 gun law

>99%

Polls of the measure

5 polls

Pollster	Sample	Ended	Yes	No	Undecided	Yes, adjusted
UMass Amherst Poll / YouGov	800 RV	2026-10-12	65	21	10	71.2%
MassINC Polling Group	800 LV	2026-09-22	51	24	24	59.6%
UNH Survey Center (Bay State Poll)	564 LV	2026-09-21	59	14	26	68.4%
UMass Amherst Poll / YouGov	800 RV	2026-08-12	59	21	14	67.7%
UNH Survey Center (Bay State Poll)	620 LV	2026-02-16	36

How this is built

Question 7 is forecast as a housing measure whose Yes vote leans to neither party. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Massachusetts's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: sec.state.ma.us , boston.com , nbcboston.com , commonwealthbeacon.org. All measures.