2026 ballot measure forecast

Virginia Question 3

Automatic voting rights restoration after prison

Establishes a fundamental right to vote and automatically restores voting rights to people with felony convictions upon release from incarceration, and replaces the mental incompetence bar with a capacity standard. The forecast has Yes at 66.1 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 95% chance to pass.

Likely to passConstitutional amendment referred by the legislatureElectionsUpdated October 17, 2026

Chance to pass

95%

2,000 simulations

Forecast Yes

66.1%

80% range 53 to 77

Needs

50%

a simple majority

Polling average

None

No public polls found

County forecast

113 of 133 counties vote Yes

No +30Yes +30Hover a county for its forecast

Where the Yes vote lands

needs 50

2035506580

History and structure: 66.1% Yes
Polls: None
Forecast: 66.1% Yes
Yes leans: Democratic

The campaign

Democratic referral; Republican opposition; no committee money found.

Also on the Virginia ballot

Question 1

Right to reproductive freedom including abortion

99%

Question 2

Repeal same sex marriage ban

97%

Polls of the measure

1 poll

Pollster	Sample	Ended	Yes	No	Undecided	Yes, adjusted
Christopher Newport University Wason Center	807 RV	2026-01-20	64

How this is built

Question 3 is forecast as a elections measure whose Yes vote leans Democratic. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Virginia's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: elections.virginia.gov , theballotbrief.com , cardinalnews.org , news.ballotpedia.org. All measures.