2026 ballot measure forecast
Washington Initiative Measure No. IL26-001
Parents' Bill of Rights reinstatement
Fully reinstates the Parents' Bill of Rights giving parents access to student academic, medical and counseling records and notifications, repealing 2025 changes. The forecast has Yes at 45.2 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 31% chance to pass.
Chance to pass
31%2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
45.2%80% range 32 to 58
Needs
50%a simple majority
Polling average
NoneNo public polls found
County forecast
24 of 39 counties vote YesNo +30Yes +30Hover a county for its forecast
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580- History and structure
- 45.2% Yes
- Polls
- None
- Forecast
- 45.2% Yes
- Yes leans
- Republican
- Rule to pass
- Simple majority of votes cast on the measure.
The campaign
Let's Go Washington initiative to the Legislature; Legislature did not act; WEA and LGBTQ advocates oppose.
Polls of the measure
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Yes | No | Undecided | Yes, adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot. | ||||||
How this is built
Initiative Measure No. IL26-001 is forecast as a education measure whose Yes vote leans Republican. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Washington's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: theurbanist.org, kxly.com. All measures.