SearchThe Weighting Room
15 DAYS OUT
NE GovPillen R +0.8GA GovBottoms D +0.8KS GovHolscher D +0.8KS SenMarshall R +1.3IA SenTurek D +1.4AK SenPeltola D +1.4SC SenAndrews D +1.5TX SenTalarico D +2.0TX GovAbbott R +2.2ME SenJackson D +2.5WI GovCrowley D +2.8NE SenOsborn I +3.4OH SenBrown D +3.8NV GovFord D +4.0OH GovActon D +4.7FL GovDonalds R +4.9
2026 ballot measure forecast

Virginia Question 2

Repeal same sex marriage ban

Removes the 2006 ban on same sex marriage and affirms that two adults may marry regardless of sex, gender or race with equal legal treatment. The forecast has Yes at 69.3 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 97% chance to pass.

Very likely to passConstitutional amendment referred by the legislatureTransgender policy and marriageUpdated October 17, 2026
Chance to pass
97%
2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
69.3%
80% range 57 to 80
Needs
50%
a simple majority
Polling average
None
No public polls found

County forecast

109 of 133 counties vote Yes
No +30Yes +30Hover a county for its forecast
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580
History and structure
69.3% Yes
Polls
None
Forecast
69.3% Yes
Yes leans
Democratic
The campaign

Supported by Gov. Spanberger and Democratic legislators; opposed by Earle-Sears and conservative groups; money not found.

Also on the Virginia ballot

Question 1
Right to reproductive freedom including abortion
99%
Question 3
Automatic voting rights restoration after prison
95%

Polls of the measure

no polls
PollsterSampleEndedYesNoUndecidedYes, adjusted
No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot.
How this is built
Question 2 is forecast as a transgender policy and marriage measure whose Yes vote leans Democratic. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Virginia's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: elections.virginia.gov, theballotbrief.com, cardinalnews.org, news.ballotpedia.org. All measures.