2026 ballot measure forecast
California Proposition 39
Voter ID and citizenship verification
Requires photo ID to vote in person, an ID number on mail ballots, and citizenship verification for voter registration. The forecast has Yes at 45.4 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 17% chance to pass.
Chance to pass
17%2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
45.4%80% range 39 to 52
Needs
50%a simple majority
Polling average
43.0%Yes, with undecided split two to one for No
County forecast
34 of 58 counties vote YesNo +30Yes +30Hover a county for its forecast
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580- History and structure
- 54.5% Yes
- Polls
- 43.0% Yes
- Forecast
- 45.4% Yes
- Yes leans
- Republican
- Rule to pass
- Simple majority of votes cast on the measure.
The campaign
Republican backed initiative; Democrats strongly opposed. Likely federal preemption litigation.
Also on the California ballot
Proposition 1
Affordable housing and veterans housing bond
93%
Proposition 2
Raise rainy day fund cap to 20 percent
>99%
Proposition 3
Make top income tax rates permanent
92%
Proposition 4
Allow public financing of campaigns
60%
Proposition 5
Recall: remove successor election
39%
Proposition 37
Loans for middle income buyers of new homes
95%
Proposition 38
Immunology research bonds
90%
Proposition 40
One time 5 percent billionaire wealth tax
65%
Proposition 41
Audits of new special taxes, Gann limit rule
31%
Proposition 42
Ban new state wealth and personal property taxes
66%
Proposition 43
Two thirds vote for local special taxes
4%
Proposition 44
Community clinics must spend 90 percent on services
7%
Proposition 45
Fast track CEQA review for essential projects
63%
Polls of the measure
3 polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Yes | No | Undecided | Yes, adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies | 4,512 LV | 2026-09-20 | 39 | 52 | 9 | 42.0% |
| Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC Statewide Survey) | 1,103 LV | 2026-09-10 | 43 | 55 | 43.7% | |
| UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies | 2,310 LV | 2026-08-09 | 42 | 51 | 7 | 44.3% |
How this is built
Proposition 39 is forecast as a voter id measure whose Yes vote leans Republican. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with California's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov, growsf.org, ppic.org, escholarship.org. All measures.