2026 ballot measure forecast

Wyoming Proposed Initiative Proposition Number One

50 percent homestead property tax exemption

Exempts 50 percent of the assessed value of a qualifying owner occupied primary residence from property tax. The forecast has Yes at 68.7 percent against the 53.2 percent it needs, a 94% chance to pass.

Likely to passCitizen initiated statuteProperty taxUpdated October 17, 2026

Chance to pass

94%

2,000 simulations

Forecast Yes

68.7%

80% range 56 to 79

Needs

53.2%

a majority of all ballots cast, so a skipped question counts as No

Polling average

None

No public polls found

County forecast

23 of 23 counties vote Yes

No +30Yes +30Hover a county for its forecast

Where the Yes vote lands

needs 53.2

2035506580

History and structure: 68.7% Yes
Polls: None
Forecast: 68.7% Yes
Yes leans: Republican
Rule to pass: Must receive a majority of all ballots cast in the general election, not just votes on the question; blank votes effectively count as no.

The campaign

Sponsored by BCR Initiatives (Brent Bien, Cheryl Aguiar, Rich Weber); first Wyoming initiative on the ballot since 1996; state revenue loss about 92.6 million in FY2028; a group organized against it.

Polls of the measure

no polls

Pollster	Sample	Ended	Yes	No	Undecided	Yes, adjusted
No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot.

How this is built

Proposed Initiative Proposition Number One is forecast as a property tax measure whose Yes vote leans Republican. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Wyoming's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: sos.wyo.gov , news.ballotpedia.org , sos.wyo.gov. All measures.