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15 DAYS OUT
NE GovPillen R +0.8GA GovBottoms D +0.8KS GovHolscher D +0.8KS SenMarshall R +1.3IA SenTurek D +1.4AK SenPeltola D +1.4SC SenAndrews D +1.5TX SenTalarico D +2.0TX GovAbbott R +2.2ME SenJackson D +2.5WI GovCrowley D +2.8NE SenOsborn I +3.4OH SenBrown D +3.8NV GovFord D +4.0OH GovActon D +4.7FL GovDonalds R +4.9
2026 ballot measure forecast

Kentucky Constitutional Amendment 1

Limit governor pardons near gubernatorial election

Bars the governor from granting pardons, commutations or reprieves from 60 days before the gubernatorial election until the new term begins, except in impeachment matters. The forecast has Yes at 69.0 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 97% chance to pass.

Very likely to passConstitutional amendment referred by the legislatureCriminal justiceUpdated October 17, 2026
Chance to pass
97%
2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
69.0%
80% range 57 to 79
Needs
50%
a simple majority
Polling average
None
No public polls found

County forecast

120 of 120 counties vote Yes
No +30Yes +30Hover a county for its forecast
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580
History and structure
69.0% Yes
Polls
None
Forecast
69.0% Yes
Yes leans
Neither party
The campaign

SB 10 by Sen. Chris McDaniel R, prompted by Gov. Bevin's 2019 end of term pardons; no organized opposition or money reported. Ballot question says the window ends at swearing in while the text says the fifth Tuesday after the election.

Polls of the measure

no polls
PollsterSampleEndedYesNoUndecidedYes, adjusted
No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot.
How this is built
Constitutional Amendment 1 is forecast as a criminal justice measure whose Yes vote leans to neither party. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Kentucky's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: theballotbrief.com, en.wikipedia.org, nkytribune.com, web.sos.ky.gov. All measures.