SearchThe Weighting Room
15 DAYS OUT
NE GovPillen R +0.8GA GovBottoms D +0.8KS GovHolscher D +0.8KS SenMarshall R +1.3IA SenTurek D +1.4AK SenPeltola D +1.4SC SenAndrews D +1.5TX SenTalarico D +2.0TX GovAbbott R +2.2ME SenJackson D +2.5WI GovCrowley D +2.8NE SenOsborn I +3.4OH SenBrown D +3.8NV GovFord D +4.0OH GovActon D +4.7FL GovDonalds R +4.9
2026 ballot measure forecast

California Proposition 3

Make top income tax rates permanent

Removes the 2030 expiration of the 10.3 to 12.3 percent top income tax brackets first created by Prop 30 and extended by Prop 55, funding schools and health care. The forecast has Yes at 57.1 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 92% chance to pass.

Likely to passCitizen initiated constitutional amendmentIncome taxUpdated October 17, 2026
Chance to pass
92%
2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
57.1%
80% range 51 to 64
Needs
50%
a simple majority
Polling average
58.1%
Yes, with undecided split two to one for No

County forecast

35 of 58 counties vote Yes
No +30Yes +30Hover a county for its forecast
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580
History and structure
53.7% Yes
Polls
58.1% Yes
Forecast
57.1% Yes
Yes leans
Democratic
Rule to pass
Simple majority of votes cast on the measure.
The campaign

Initiative extending Prop 30/55 high earner rates; backed by education and health care labor coalition per news reports.

Also on the California ballot

Proposition 1
Affordable housing and veterans housing bond
93%
Proposition 2
Raise rainy day fund cap to 20 percent
>99%
Proposition 4
Allow public financing of campaigns
60%
Proposition 5
Recall: remove successor election
39%
Proposition 37
Loans for middle income buyers of new homes
95%
Proposition 38
Immunology research bonds
90%
Proposition 39
Voter ID and citizenship verification
17%
Proposition 40
One time 5 percent billionaire wealth tax
65%
Proposition 41
Audits of new special taxes, Gann limit rule
31%
Proposition 42
Ban new state wealth and personal property taxes
66%
Proposition 43
Two thirds vote for local special taxes
4%
Proposition 44
Community clinics must spend 90 percent on services
7%
Proposition 45
Fast track CEQA review for essential projects
63%

Polls of the measure

2 polls
PollsterSampleEndedYesNoUndecidedYes, adjusted
UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies2,261 LV2026-09-2054341357.8%
Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC Statewide Survey)1,103 LV2026-09-10584058.7%
How this is built
Proposition 3 is forecast as a income tax measure whose Yes vote leans Democratic. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with California's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov, growsf.org, ppic.org, escholarship.org. All measures.