2026 ballot measure forecast
California Proposition 43
Two thirds vote for local special taxes
Requires two thirds voter approval for new local special taxes, including those placed by citizen initiative, prospectively. The forecast has Yes at 41.8 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 4% chance to pass.
Chance to pass
4%2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
41.8%80% range 36 to 48
Needs
50%a simple majority
Polling average
42.4%Yes, with undecided split two to one for No
County forecast
18 of 58 counties vote YesNo +30Yes +30Hover a county for its forecast
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580- History and structure
- 39.5% Yes
- Polls
- 42.4% Yes
- Forecast
- 41.8% Yes
- Yes leans
- Republican
- Rule to pass
- Simple majority of votes cast on the measure.
The campaign
ACA 22 placed by Legislature in deal with Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association to withdraw a broader initiative.
Also on the California ballot
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Affordable housing and veterans housing bond
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Proposition 2
Raise rainy day fund cap to 20 percent
>99%
Proposition 3
Make top income tax rates permanent
92%
Proposition 4
Allow public financing of campaigns
60%
Proposition 5
Recall: remove successor election
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Proposition 37
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Proposition 38
Immunology research bonds
90%
Proposition 39
Voter ID and citizenship verification
17%
Proposition 40
One time 5 percent billionaire wealth tax
65%
Proposition 41
Audits of new special taxes, Gann limit rule
31%
Proposition 42
Ban new state wealth and personal property taxes
66%
Proposition 44
Community clinics must spend 90 percent on services
7%
Proposition 45
Fast track CEQA review for essential projects
63%
Polls of the measure
2 polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Yes | No | Undecided | Yes, adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies | 4,512 LV | 2026-09-20 | 31 | 40 | 29 | 40.7% |
| Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC Statewide Survey) | 1,103 LV | 2026-09-10 | 43 | 51 | 45.0% |
How this is built
Proposition 43 is forecast as a higher bars to pass measure whose Yes vote leans Republican. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with California's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov, growsf.org, ppic.org, escholarship.org. All measures.